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Quant brain · Mispricing engine · 14-model committee · Risk Officer · Memory · Validation
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nothe graveyard · signal registry

Most signals die. We bury ours in public.

Every idea this engine runs goes through the same pipeline: shadow trial → validation → a vote, or a grave with a cause of death. Nothing here is decoration — each entry is a real signal or assumption we ran, promoted, demoted or killed.

The graves

7 buried · each with a cause of death
  • Trusting fresh timestampskilledJun 2026 — Jul 2026

    † A timestamp proves recency, not sanity.

    Poisoned feeds served 2009-era prices under today's dates — three separate incidents (a $17 Microsoft, a $25 Signet, a $91 Meta). Buried under independent live-quote cross-checks on every source, and a chaos-test suite that replays each incident forever.

  • Blind reserve-source fallbackkilledJun 2026 — Jul 8, 2026

    † A single keyless source cannot prove its own price scale.

    Truncated histories from the last-resort feed poisoned two runs. Now: no independent verification, no price — the engine abstains instead of guessing.

  • The catalyst indexkilledJun 2026 — Jul 2026

    † A composite score masked the absence of anything concrete.

    One blended 'catalyst score' sounded rigorous and said nothing. Replaced by four specific, checkable catalysts: buybacks, insider clusters, 13D filings, debt traps.

  • Raw account value as the track recordkilledJun 2026 — Jul 2026

    † Deposits masqueraded as returns.

    The account grew mostly from top-ups; charting it as performance would have been a lie. The public line is unrealized P&L vs cost — deposit-blind by construction.

  • One DCF for every sectorkilledJun 2026 — Jun 2026

    † Free cash flow is meaningless for a bank.

    Running owner-earnings DCF on banks, REITs and pipeline biotech fabricated numbers. A sector router now sends each to a method that fits — or to an honest abstention.

  • The 20-day verdict on 3-year theseskilledJun 2026 — Jul 10, 2026

    † A month of noise cannot judge a decade of cash flows.

    Demoted, not deleted: 20-day scoring survives as an execution diagnostic. Doctrine now gets judged on 60-day checkpoints first, then 252-day — an external audit forced this one.

  • The split-brain margin of safetykilledJun 2026 — Jul 10, 2026

    † Two contours priced two different markets.

    The valuation model once priced a stock off a poisoned $91 while the screen saw $669 — and its false +30% margin was the number the money filter preferred. An invariant now rejects any name whose contours disagree by more than 20%.

On trial

watched daily · no vote until the data speaks
  • DCF v8 — the re-derived valuationon trialsince Jul 10, 2026

    An external audit argued our strict model double-punishes elite compounders. The re-derived model runs in shadow next to it; a pre-registered head-to-head resolves in October. Neither side gets to grade its own homework.

  • Crowd-interest term structureon trialsince Jul 9, 2026

    Wikipedia readership over 14/90/365-day windows as a demand proxy — spikes, builds and rollovers. Recorded next to every decision; earns a voice only if it predicts anything.

  • Filing-distress flags (late filings, auditor changes)on trialsince Jun 2026

    NT filings and auditor departures as early smoke. Shadow-journaled on finalists; the non-reliance flavor already graduated (see the active list).

  • Lazy Prices (risk-factor rewrites)on trialsince Jun 2026

    Year-over-year rewrites of a 10-K's risk section — a documented value-trap predictor. Surfaced as narrative, never a veto, until the data speaks.

  • 13F superinvestor overlapon trialsince Jun 2026

    Whether curated value managers hold the name. Confirmation cue only — 45-day-stale public data never moves a score.

  • The −15% drawdown halton trialsince Jun 2026

    Blocks new buys after a 15% account drawdown. Under indictment: the audit argues it silences a value buyer exactly when entries get cheaper. Counterfactual cohort will be logged at the first real halt.

  • Scenario-spread as position-sizing varianceon trialsince Jun 2026

    Sizing currently shrinks with the bear-bull spread of our own model. The audit calls it self-agreement, not risk. Pre-registered check runs against realized volatility.

Earned a vote

survivors — and survivors only
  • Beneish M-score vetoactivesince Jun 2026

    Earnings-manipulation forensics. Started shadow, earned promotion: a raised flag now blocks a buy outright.

  • 8-K 4.02 non-reliance vetoactivesince Jun 2026

    'Do not rely on our past financials' is the loudest sentence a company can file. Hard veto, no appeals.

  • Piotroski F-score tiersactivesince Jun 2026

    Fundamental-health tiers gate conviction. Promoted from shadow with the forensics batch.

  • Reverse-DCF plausibility capactivesince Jun 2026

    If a fair value needs implausible growth to exist, the fair value loses. Caps the model's own enthusiasm.

  • The price-contour invariantactivesince Jul 10, 2026

    Born from the split-brain grave one scroll up. Every valuation must price the same market the screen sees, or it never touches money.

  • Epistemic abstentionactivesince Jun 2026

    The one rule everything else serves: unverifiable data never becomes a fair value, and 'unknown' never masquerades as 'cheap'. The external audit named it the untouchable part — we agree.

Scoreboards: the Street vs the council · almost · the NO-ledger · how we price

The burial protocol comes from the owner's own research vault: every kill needs a named cause, so the same zombie can't be reborn under a new name. Research & education only — not investment advice.