Accruals-quality red flagEarnings not cash-backed — high Sloan accruals (net income well above operating cash flow); a shadow signal, not yet a hard veto.
The discount closing without the business improving.
Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 run
Price at last run
$25.69
Patience price
≈$12
Gets interesting at
≈$12
−52% from today's $26
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 92% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
≈2.5× FV
if things go wrong
Base
-92%
most-likely case
Bull
-66%
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filings
Accruals qualityobservational (shadow)
Earnings are running ahead of the cash that backs them (high Sloan accruals) — a documented quality warning.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
Check another stock
Where a cell shows ≈N× FV, the price is that many times the scenario's fair value (MoS below −100%).