Risk officer vetoBlocked: Quality BLOCK: fails the business-quality bar; Cigar-butt BLOCK: cheap, but the business is fading — a value trap, not a wonderful company.
Main riskvaluation stretched
Value-trap riskCheap for a reason — weak returns or shrinking sales can keep it cheap for years.
What keeps us out
The discount closing without the business improving.
Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 run
Price at last run
$80.24
Patience price
≈$113
Implied upside
+40.6%
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 33.5% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
+14%
if things go wrong
Base
+34%
most-likely case
Bull
+43%
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
The committee
AVOID
Check another stock
Quality concernReturns on capital are below what we want to own.