AppFolio, Inc.·Technology
Great business, but priced for perfection.
65/100B
Price at last run$176as of Jul 8, 2026
recovery techHigh returns on capitalROIC ~25% — it earns well on the money it puts to work.
Strong gross margins85% gross margin.
GrowingRevenue growing ~20%.
Clean balance sheetLow leverage (debt/equity 0.00).
Catalystnone yet
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideMain riskvaluation stretched
Demanding valuationTrading at ~45× earnings — little room for error.
Falling knifeDown 45% from its 1-year high — momentum is against it.
What keeps us out
- Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
- Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.