AVAV
the council passes — AVOIDAeroVironment Inc·Industrials
Doesn't clear the council's bar right now.
24/100F
Price at last run$158as of Jul 8, 2026
quality large-cap✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideMain riskno obvious red flag
Earnings-quality red flagEarnings-quality red flag — Beneish M-score elevated (possible earnings manipulation); a shadow signal, not yet a hard veto.
Quality concernNot consistently profitable yet.
Falling knifeDown 61% from its 1-year high — momentum is against it.
What keeps us out
- A deterioration in the fundamentals that score the business.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filingsBeneish M-scoreobservational (shadow)
M-score -0.71 — above the manipulation-likelihood threshold (≈ −1.78). A statistical screen, not proof.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.