Great business, but priced for perfection.
One or more rules are designed to stop a buy outright — no matter how cheap or how loved the name. Here, at least one fired:
No conviction — the council would not put money behind this at today's price.
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 43% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.
Buffett 84/100 (A), Basic Materials. Strength: ROIC. Main risk: Dividend Yield. Quant call: BUY (high conviction).
Valuation BLOCK: no margin of safety (price >= fair value)
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