CG
the council passes — AVOIDCarlyle Group Inc.·Financial Services
Doesn't clear the council's bar right now.
60/100C
Price at last run$42.70as of Jul 8, 2026
quality compounderHigh returns on capitalROIC ~16% — it earns well on the money it puts to work.
Strong gross margins99% gross margin.
Clean balance sheetLow leverage (debt/equity 0.00).
Catalystnone yet
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideMain riskshrinking revenue
Accruals-quality red flagEarnings not cash-backed — high Sloan accruals (net income well above operating cash flow); a shadow signal, not yet a hard veto.
ShrinkingRevenue contracting (-12%).
What keeps us out
- A deterioration in the fundamentals that score the business.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filingsAccruals qualityobservational (shadow)
Earnings are running ahead of the cash that backs them (high Sloan accruals) — a documented quality warning.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.