Owned by a value superinvestorHeld by Pershing Square (Ackman), Fairholme (Berkowitz) — at least one added to the stake last quarter. A confirmation cue from public 13F filings (≈45-day lag), not a recommendation.
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hide
What keeps us out
Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
CPRT — death condition: Price reaches fair value (~$9) → stop adding
CPRT — death condition: Revenue growth turns negative for 2 consecutive quarters → thesis dead
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 69% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
≈3.8× FV
if things go wrong
Base
≈3.2× FV
most-likely case
Bull
≈2.9× FV
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Superinvestors who own this
recently addedobservational (shadow)
A curated long-horizon value manager holds this name (2 in total):
Pershing Square (Ackman)
Fairholme (Berkowitz)
A confirmation cue — disciplined investors arrived here independently — not a recommendation. Sourced from public 13F filings, which post on a ~45-day lag, so positions may have changed. It does not change the verdict; only a hard veto does.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filings
Other signals we're watchingobservational (shadow)
Debt-context trap: deleveraging in a high-growth/high-M-B name (market-timing froth, Research G -0.9%/mo) — shadow, not yet acting
Superinvestor overlap: held by >=1 tracked value 13F filer + recent ADD — shadow, not yet acting
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
The committee
BUY2/5 BUY
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.