The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 73% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
≈4.1× FV
if things go wrong
Base
≈3.6× FV
most-likely case
Bull
≈3.4× FV
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filings
Other signals we're watchingobservational (shadow)
Debt-context trap: deleveraging in a high-growth/high-M-B name (market-timing froth, Research G -0.9%/mo) — shadow, not yet acting
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
The committee
BUY2/5 BUY
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.