Great business, but priced for perfection.
One or more rules are designed to stop a buy outright — no matter how cheap or how loved the name. Here, at least one fired:
No conviction — the council would not put money behind this at today's price.
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 69% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
A curated long-horizon value manager holds this name:
A confirmation cue — disciplined investors arrived here independently — not a recommendation. Sourced from public 13F filings, which post on a ~45-day lag, so positions may have changed. It does not change the verdict; only a hard veto does.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.
Buffett 85/100 (A), Technology. Strength: ROIC. Main risk: Dividend Yield. Quant call: BUY (high conviction).
Valuation BLOCK: no margin of safety (price >= fair value)
Cirrus Logic develops and manufactures low-power, high-precision mixed-signal processing solutions for mobile and consumer applications, leveraging its expertise to drive innovative user experiences.
• Cirrus Logic creates low-power, high-precision mixed-signal processing solutions for mobile and consumer applications, enabling innovative user experiences. | • The company's durable competitive advantage lies in its expertise in mixed-signal processing, which is a complex and difficult-to-replicate technology, allowing it to maintain a leadership position in its niche. | • This expertise and leadership position create barriers to entry for competitors, contributing to the company's moat.
• Management's tone in the MD&A seems cautious and forward-looking, with an emphasis on risks and uncertainties, indicating a prudent approach to capital allocation and business strategy. | • The company seems focused on executing its "three-pronged strategy," though details are not provided, suggesting a clear plan for growth and profitability.
• Dependence on a limited number of customers and distributors, with a lack of diversification in revenue base, poses a significant risk to the business. | • Global economic conditions, including recessions, tariffs, and inflationary pressures, could negatively impact Cirrus Logic's operations and revenue. | • Strong competition in the semiconductor market, including competition for talent, could affect the company's ability to innovate and maintain market share.
Source: 10-K read; LLM-distilled (Item 1/1A/7)
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