Good business at a fair-to-cheap price.
Workable, but something keeps it off the top shelf — the council would size it smaller than a high-conviction name.
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 26.6% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
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