FIX
research-grade BUY candidateCOMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC.·Industrials
Good business at a fair-to-cheap price.
67/100B
Price at last run$1,631as of Jul 8, 2026
quality large-capConviction
high
Even the bear case leaves a margin of safety — the council would size this near full.
High returns on capitalROIC ~64% — it earns well on the money it puts to work.
Fat operating margins46% operating margin — pricing power / a real moat hint.
Margin of safetyTrades ~77% below our fair-value estimate.
Clean balance sheetLow leverage (debt/equity 0.00).
Catalystnone yet
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideWhat keeps us out
- The discount closing without the business improving.
- Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
- Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
- Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runGets interesting at
≈$245
−85% from today's $1,631
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 76.9% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
+68%
if things go wrong
Bull
+81%
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.