JHG
the council passes — AVOIDJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC·Financial Services
The quality and the price don't line up.
55/100C
Price at last run—as of Jul 8, 2026
quality compounderConviction
high
Even the bear case leaves a margin of safety — the council would size this near full.
High returns on capitalROIC ~18% — it earns well on the money it puts to work.
Fat operating margins56% operating margin — pricing power / a real moat hint.
Margin of safetyTrades ~46% below our fair-value estimate.
GrowingRevenue growing ~74%.
Clean balance sheetLow leverage (debt/equity 0.00).
Catalystnone yet
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideWhat keeps us out
- The discount closing without the business improving.
- Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 45.7% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
+11%
if things go wrong
Bull
+48%
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filingsOther signals we're watchingobservational (shadow)
- Superinvestor overlap: held by >=1 tracked value 13F filer + recent ADD — shadow, not yet acting
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.