The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 56% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
≈2.5× FV
if things go wrong
Base
≈2.3× FV
most-likely case
Bull
≈2.2× FV
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Superinvestors who own this
observational (shadow)
A curated long-horizon value manager holds this name:
Pershing Square (Ackman)
A confirmation cue — disciplined investors arrived here independently — not a recommendation. Sourced from public 13F filings, which post on a ~45-day lag, so positions may have changed. It does not change the verdict; only a hard veto does.
Forensic read
earnings quality · filings
Filing distressobservational (shadow)
SEC comment letters present (3 UPLOAD/CORRESP in window; latest 2025-06-03) — the SEC questioned a filing; under-watched accounting-scrutiny signal. SEC comment-letter CLUSTER (3 >= 3 in window) — sustained staff back-and-forth, not a one-off note. SEC comment letter on ACCOUNTING-CRITICAL topic (revenue recognition) — staff questioning accounting/disclosure; strongest comment-letter flag.
Other signals we're watchingobservational (shadow)
Superinvestor overlap: held by >=1 tracked value 13F filer — shadow, not yet acting
SEC comment letters present (3 UPLOAD/CORRESP in window; latest 2025-06-03) — the SEC questioned a filing; under-watched accounting-scrutiny signal. (shadow)
SEC comment-letter CLUSTER (3 >= 3 in window) — sustained staff back-and-forth, not a one-off note. (shadow)
SEC comment letter on ACCOUNTING-CRITICAL topic (revenue recognition) — staff questioning accounting/disclosure; strongest comment-letter flag. (shadow)
SEC comment letters present (3 UPLOAD/CORRESP in window; latest 2025-06-03) — the SEC questioned a filing; under-watched accounting-scrutiny signal.
SEC comment-letter CLUSTER (3 >= 3 in window) — sustained staff back-and-forth, not a one-off note.
The committee
BUY2/5 BUY
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.
Valuation BLOCK: no margin of safety (price >= fair value)
Check another stock
Main risklittle margin of safety
SEC filing-distress flagSEC comment letters present (3 UPLOAD/CORRESP in window; latest 2025-06-03) — the SEC questioned a filing; under-watched accounting-scrutiny signal. SEC comment-letter CLUSTER (3 >= 3 in window) — sustained staff back-and-forth, not a one-off note. SEC comment letter on ACCOUNTING-CRITICAL topic (revenue recognition) — staff questioning accounting/disclosure; strongest comment-letter flag. — late filings, an auditor change, or a restatement often precede a blow-up; a shadow signal, not yet a hard veto.