MCY
research-grade BUY candidateMERCURY GENERAL CORP·Financial Services
Good business at a fair-to-cheap price.
79/100B
Price at last run$111as of Jul 8, 2026
quality compounderHigh returns on capitalROIC ~32% — it earns well on the money it puts to work.
Strong gross margins100% gross margin.
Generates real cash16.7% free-cash-flow yield — profits you can actually bank.
Margin of safetyTrades ~18% below our fair-value estimate.
Clean balance sheetLow leverage (debt/equity 0.00).
Catalystnone yet
✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideWhat keeps us out
- The discount closing without the business improving.
- Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 17.6% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.