The discount closing without the business improving.
Margins or returns on capital deteriorating.
Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 run
Price at last run
$383
Patience price
≈$29
Gets interesting at
≈$29
−93% from today's $383
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Margin of safety: 40.0% discount to our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
+32%
if things go wrong
Base
+40%
most-likely case
Bull
+44%
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.