Falling knifeDown 53% from its 1-year high — momentum is against it.
What keeps us out
Paying up here — we'd want a better entry price.
Growth slowing while the multiple stays rich.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 run
Price at last run
$31.24
Patience price
≈$7
Gets interesting at
≈$7
−78% from today's $31
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
The price currently runs 78% above our patience price. A target is an estimate, not a promise — markets can stay wrong for a long time, and the estimate can be wrong too.
Margin of safety by scenario
Bear
≈4.9× FV
if things go wrong
Base
≈4.6× FV
most-likely case
Bull
≈4.4× FV
if things go right
Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Check another stock
Where a cell shows ≈N× FV, the price is that many times the scenario's fair value (MoS below −100%).