SMG
the council passes — AVOIDScotts Miracle-Gro Co·Basic Materials
Doesn't clear the council's bar right now.
41/100D
Price at last run$64.49as of Jul 8, 2026
cyclical✕Why not
The honest case against — what most tools hideMain riskshrinking revenue
LeverageCarries meaningful debt (debt/equity 2.0).
ShrinkingRevenue contracting (-4%).
What keeps us out
- Debt rising faster than cash flow.
Patience price & distance
as of Jul 8, 2026 runThe patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
Catalyst
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.