Great business, but priced for perfection.
One or more rules are designed to stop a buy outright — no matter how cheap or how loved the name. Here, at least one fired:
No conviction — the council would not put money behind this at today's price.
The patience price is where value discipline would let the council in — deliberately strict: we'd rather miss ten winners than own one loser.
At this price the stock trades at ≈ 5.7× our fair-value estimate — the council would need a far lower price before value discipline lets it in. A target is an estimate, not a promise — the estimate can be wrong too.
MoS = (FV − price) / FV — it can fall below −100% for richly priced names. Raw value here: -474.7%.
Margin of safety by scenario
none yet
A catalyst is a plausible reason the gap could close — never a certainty.
Shadow signals are watched and recorded, but they do not by themselves change the verdict — only a hard veto does.
The models disagreed. This was a split decision, not a unanimous call — read both sides below.
Buffett 81/100 (A), Basic Materials. Strength: ROIC. Main risk: Dividend Yield. Quant call: BUY (high conviction).
Valuation BLOCK: no margin of safety (price >= fair value)
Map every name you own to the council's published verdicts — patience prices, forensic flags, concentration math. Free, computed in your browser; your list is never uploaded.
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Each column is the discount to that scenario's fair value. The bear column is the one that matters most — a wide bear-case cushion is what lets the council own a name through a bad year. Where a cell shows ≈N× FV, the price is that many times the scenario's fair value (MoS below −100%).